Pakistan’s politics have turned turbulent after the May 9, 2022 incidents which ultimately resulted in further polarisation in the society and political changes including crumble of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz’ supremo Nawaz Sharif’s return and his acquittal in the cases, he was once convicted for.
A few weeks before the election, the PTI lost its party symbol after a legal battle, which is also linked to the May 9 incidents by some political analysts but some independent observers believe that the PTI’s intra-party elections had several deficiencies due to which it lost its party symbol ‘bat’.
Police, along with other security forces had arrested PTI Chief Imran Khan from Islamabad High Court’s premises on May 9, 2022, which led to the eruption of the country-wide protests by the PTI supporters. However, this time the protests were not peaceful. The PTI supporters rounded up and trespassed several military and civil offices like the Army’s Headquarters in Rawalpindi, Corps Commander House in Lahore and airbases in various districts. In response, the security forces launched a strict crackdown against the PTI leaders and supporters and arrested over ten thousand of them on charges of attacking the state’s installation. The PTI leaders term the attacks on the army’s offices a conspiracy.
Most of those, arrested in the May 9 cases, succumbed to the action against them. They were brought before the media and they condemned the attacks on the army’s offices and announced to quit either the PTI or politics. It laid the foundation for the PTI’s disintegration. The PTI’s former secretary general, Jahangir Khan Tareen also known as JKT, and once the PTI’s biggest financier made the first dent into the PTI in Punjab. Tareen, who made his exit from the party after Imran Khan tied the nuptial knot with Bushra Bibi, galvanised several electables from Punjab around him and formed Instehkam-e -Pakistan Party (IPP). Several stalwarts like Aleem Khan, Nauman Iqbal Langrial, Saeed Akbar Khan Niwani, Aun Chaudhry, Amir Kiani, Firdaus Ashiq Awan, Mahmood Maulvi and Murad Rass joined the IPP. In Punjab, the PTI lost almost all of its leaders because the rest of its top leaders like Dr Yasmeen Rashid, Mian Mehmoodur Rashid, Ejaz Chaudhry and Mian Aslam Iqbal and Usman Dar are either in jail at large.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI’s strongest support base, the former KP Chief Minister and the PTI’s spearhead Pervaiz Khattak gave another blow to the PTI and founded the PTI-Parliamentarians with the help of the former KP Chief Minister Mahmood Khan and several other former parliamentarians. The PTI believes that the establishment was behind the creation of the IPP and the PTI-P and the exodus of the PTI leaders into the other parties.
Since there was no political face in the PTI left to communicate with Imran Khan, he adopted another strategy and converted the party’s lawyers’ wing as the PTI’s political face, giving chairmanship to Barrister Gohar Ali Khan, who had joined the PTI in 2022. Now, the lawyers Gohar Ali Khan, Sher Afzal Marwat, Barrister Ali Zafar, Former Punjab Governor Latif Khosa, Hamid Khan and Salman Safdar are running the party’s affairs. This decision also resulted in intra-party discipline after Sher Afzal Marwat, Gohar Ali Khan and the party’s spokesperson Rauf Hasan developed serious differences. Marwat, who holds the party’s senior vice president’s office, launched the party’s election campaign in Sindh but the PTI’s spokesman stopped him from leading the campaign after which he not only stopped the campaign but also levelled serious allegations against Hassan. He said, ‘The spokesman is trying to destroy the party on the instructions of his brother Fawad Hassan Fawad, who is a federal minister.’
After the Supreme Court dismissed the Peshawar High Court’s decision to restore the party’s symbol ‘bat’ after marathon proceedings, the PTI’s candidates would contest the general election as independent runners. Speaking to this scribe, a PTI spokesman said, ‘The SC issued a faulty and aggressive verdict. Already, the elements who want to crush the PTI, had decided to deprive the party of its symbol in closed-door meetings, and the SC just endorsed their undemocratic wishes.’
Interestingly, the PTI before the SC’s verdict issued a party’s candidates list that included several names who did not apply for the tickets or had never been a part of the PTI. It also included the name of Imtiaz Alam, a senior journalist, who is contesting the election from his native town Bahawalnagar in Punjab. His elder brother Late Mumtaz Alam Gilani won the seat in 2008 and became the state minister for human rights in Yousaf Raza Gilani’s cabinet. When Wayward contacted Alam to confirm if he applied for the ticket, he responded, ‘It is correct that I am contesting the election for NA-161 Bahawalnagar. However, I am a candidate for the Haqooq e Party and submitted my ticket to the concerned returning officer. It is surprising how the PTI issued a ticket to me for which I never applied.’
In such circumstances, the future of the PTI in the coming elections looks bleak despite its massive vote bank. The PTI’s candidates would be elected as the independent winners and would be free to join any other party which might be an ideal situation for the PML-N, the PPP, the IPP and the PTI-P for increasing its strength in the assemblies and enhancing their chances to form the federal and the provincial government.
On the other hand, the PML-N could not launch its campaign with full throttle. The PML-N took 19 days to decide on the party’s ticket because of several problems and the biggest one was to accommodate the IPP in Punjab. ‘We were under immense pressure from the establishment for accommodating the IPP’s candidates from Lahore therefore we sacrificed our two constituencies for National Assembly from Lahore and adjusted the IPP’s president Aleem Khan and Aun Chaudhry,’ said a PML-N stalwart on condition of anonymity.
The PML-N Punjab Secretary Information Azma Zahid Bukhari told the Wayward, ‘Mian Nawaz Sharif set a precedent and heard each applicant personally therefore the PML-N took time to reach the final decision about the tickets.’ She said that Nawaz Sharif and Maryam would address 60 rallies across Pakistan before the election campaign ends.
The party which is taking the lead on others in terms of election campaigns is the PPP. The PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is going to every nook and cranny of the country to attract voters. Grippingly, he is not targeting the PTI in his speeches but the PML-N and Nawaz Sharif which might be a good move to get some support from anti-PML-N voters. The PPP left other parties behind and announced its manifesto on the occasion of Benazir Bhutto’s death anniversary.
Bilawal also made a big decision to contest the election for NA-127 Lahore against all odds. The PPP could not win this seat after 1988. Shaheed BB also stopped contesting elections from Lahore after 1988 due to which the morale of the PPP’s supporters went down in Lahore. It will be a win-win situation for the PPP. If Bilawal wins the elections, it would be a leap towards the PPP’s revival in Punjab. Even if he loses, he would be able to organise the party in Lahore and other parts of Punjab through his election rallies as a result of which the PPP may win more seats than in the Election 2018 from Punjab.
The post-May 9 scenario, encouraged the rumours about postponement of the elections. However, the date is final, symbols have been allotted while the ballot papers have gone for the printing process therefore voters and the political parties are turning up their sleeves to show their muscles in the election’s arena.
The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst associated with forthnightly ‘Truth Tracker’.
