Twenty first century protests across the world are distinct from the ideological battles of the twentieth century. They are episodic, unplanned, and unstructured. The masses may be inspired to protest against generally incompetent, inefficient, and unresponsive governments, economic distress, inequality, and corruption. This has surfaced with vengeance in South Asia. Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021 and the Americans did a calendar and no condition based withdrawal, Imran Khan was dislodged in Pakistan in April 2022 despite support, Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka in July 2022 post mass protest, and Modi’s popularity dwindled substantially in India in 2023, because he catered to power lobbies and not to the people. The latest development is Sheikh Hasina’s downfall and her fleeing Bangladesh in August 2024. The political dynamics in South Asia have been completely upended in the last three years. Most of the countries that have faced these upheavals continue to suffer from political and economic instability. South Asia is now characterised by ballots and bullets, with the undercutting theme of street disillusionment and cold anger turning into hot rage.
Interestingly, the Bangladesh army’s refusal to suppress the protests sealed Hasina’s fate. Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman held a meeting with his generals and decided that troops would not open fire on civilians to enforce the curfew. The army had stepped in to help restore order following earlier protests, but this time they were largely bystanders, watching the rallies unfold. The Bangladeshi Chief of Army Staff, who was related to Hasina by marriage and was a loyalist, informed her in no uncertain terms that she no longer had the army’s support. She was not even allowed to make her last speech and was hurriedly rushed out of the country, bringing her fifteen-year rule to an abrupt end. Even prior to the political unrest, the socio-economic situation on the ground was worsening. In May 2024, Bangladesh’s reserves of foreign currency fell below US$19 billion (£15 billion) for the first time in 11 months. The Central bank officials said existing reserves would cover Bangladesh for just four months. This would leave the country struggling to import fuel and maintain its garment sector – the country’s largest export industry. The crunch was being felt by the masses.
Hasina, the world’s longest serving female leader, was known for suppressing dissent at each and every cost. Her terms were marred by violence. The straw that broke the camel’s back was the initially peaceful student protests in June 2024, sparked by the court’s reinstatement of a job quota scheme that had been annulled in 2018. The policy reserved 30 per cent of government jobs for descendants of veterans who fought in the 1971 war of independence, most of whom are linked to Hasina’s Awami League party, which led the independence movement. Critics saw this as a way to secure jobs for the ruling party’s supporters. It was also a response, to poor governance, corruption and jobless economic growth paradigms, with around 32 million young people either unemployed or out of education.
What followed was a revolution by accident. The students turned into accidental revolutionaries sparking a political revolution. Collective anger over years of human rights abuses, corruption, and rigged elections culminated in an uprising. ‘The people’s sentiment is that Hasina has to go first. The government had lost moral and political legitimacy,’ said Zonayed Saki, the left-leaning leader of the Ganosamhati Andolan party and a former student activist.
The situation in the country had become extremely violent, with an unprecedented level of brutality during crackdowns. Numerous gruesome videos of deaths and injuries were shared on social media, and reports indicate that there have been around 300 deaths, including 32 children, with many more injured and thousands arrested. The use of live ammunition and helicopters against protesters shocked the nation. What ultimately united the country was the deaths of protesters from all walks of life – from rickshaw pullers to the elite urban class. The whole narrative changed. Previously indifferent to political protests organised by opposition parties during Hasina’s tenure, the Bangladeshi people came together. Capitalising on the protest’s momentum, Bangladesh’s young revolutionaries expanded their demands to systemic change, ultimately toppling the country’s longest-serving government. Interestingly, Hasina had everything going for her. The bureaucracy, army, police, and media were all on her side, but things changed dramatically over a short period of five weeks.
For now, the Bangladesh army is showing restraint and hasn’t taken direct control. They are negotiating with student leaders, and their demand to dissolve the government was readily accepted. The armed forces of Bangladesh have a history of overthrowing elected governments in 1970, 1980, and through several attempted coups. This time, however, they are being cautious. There is an economic dimension to it: Bangladesh is a major supplier of soldiers to the United Nations’ peacekeeping forces and doesn’t want to upset the international community, which could impact their funding. The armed forces rely less on the national budget, and their actions are closely watched. Recently, in mid-July, military vehicles with UN insignia were seen on the streets of Dhaka during domestic unrest, which drew international attention and concern.
At first glance, it seems the students miraculously toppled Hasina’s all-powerful government in five short weeks, but this revolution was years in the making. Since Bangladesh gained independence, its youth have been deeply affected by the violence they and their families faced. They’ve mostly dealt with political imbalances in one of two ways: trying to work within the system or leaving the country. Unlike their parents, their dream and ambition were not to leave for the West, or stay and work the system. Their dream was to stay and reform the country. They were not willing to accept the human rights abuses of a corrupt government as the price they needed to pay for economic progress. Today, after weeks of bloodshed, pain, fear and heartache, young Bangladeshis are now in charge of the country and perhaps for the first time in their lives, they have reason to be optimistic for the future.
Hopefully Bangladesh will not move from civilian dictatorship to a military takeover or something even more dangerous the popular hybrid governance model. The future is uncertain, but there’s a chance for a more democratic and accountable leadership to emerge from this crisis. However, establishing a civilian government will not be easy as the divisions between the President’s Awami League and main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party now run very deep. It is crucial for all stakeholders to seize this moment to build a more transparent and inclusive political system. The international community will likely be watching closely. Let’s hope this significant moment serves as a catalyst for meaningful reform and not just another chapter in a cycle of political upheaval.
The writer is the Rector of Millenium Institue of Technology and Entrepreneurship and a political analyst.
