Indian-administered Kashmir erupted with thunderous fury at the ballot box, overwhelmingly rejecting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s assault on autonomy five years ago. The recent elections served as a powerful referendum, demanding the restoration of the people’s rights, including their autonomy and the fundamental right to govern themselves.
October 8, 2024, signaled a seismic shift in the political landscape of Indian-administered Kashmir. The electorate resoundingly rejected the BJP while heralding the resurgence of the region’s oldest pro-autonomy party, the National Conference (NC). This shift not only reflects a rejection of the BJP’s policies but also indicates a renewed demand for autonomy and self-governance. During the September-October elections, a significant political upheaval unfolded, with the National Conference achieving its strongest performance since 1996, winning 42 out of 90 seats. This enthusiastic turnout sent a clear message to the BJP, reflecting widespread anger over the abrogation of Article 370 and the loss of the region’s special status, and statehood. This resurgence positions the NC as a formidable force in the region, suggesting a potential rebalancing of power and a revival of pro-autonomy sentiments among the electorate.
The National Conference’s resurgence is amplified by its strategic alliance with the Congress party, which collectively claimed 49 seats in the recent elections. The NC secured 42, while Congress took 6 — five in the Valley and one in Rajouri. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) added 1 seat to the tally. Meanwhile, the BJP won only 29 seats, primarily in Hindu-majority Jammu, with just three in the Chenab Valley. This powerful coalition positions the NC at the forefront of regional politics. It signals a united front against the BJP’s dominance.
The enthusiastic turnout sent a clear message to the BJP, reflecting widespread anger over the abrogation of Article 370 and the loss of the region’s special status.
This sentiment is echoed by Siddiq Wahid, a history professor at Shiv Nadar University and a native of Kashmir, who states, ‘The establishment interpretation is that they are coming out in such droves because democracy has been restored. Nothing could be further from the truth. The voter turnout is a keen realisation of the fact that enough is enough,’ in an interview with the Washington Post.
In 2022, the region’s electoral boundaries were redrawn, allocating 43 seats to the Hindu-dominated Jammu division and 47 to the Kashmir division. By reorganizing constituencies and enhancing the representation of Hindu-majority areas, Prime Minister Modi’s government aimed to build an electoral mandate for the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir — a region that has remained politically dormant for a decade. The BJP’s disappointment was both significant and predictable. It became clear that Kashmiris preferred to cast their votes for anyone — even a local party allied with mainstream Indian political parties — rather than support the Hindu-first leaders who snatched their statehood and revoked their special status in 2019.
‘People have supported us more than we expected. Now our efforts will be to prove that we are worthy of these votes,’ Omar Abdullah, the NC leader and former chief minister who won from two seats, told reporters in the main city of Srinagar.
The vote will enable Kashmir to establish its own truncated government and a regional legislature of being directly under New Delhi’s authority. However, the transfer of power from New Delhi to the assembly will be limited, as Kashmir will continue to be a ‘union territory’ — directly overseen by the Indian government, with India’s Parliament serving as its primary legislator. For the new government to acquire powers comparable to other states in India, Kashmir’s statehood must be restored. Nevertheless, it will not regain the special powers it had prior to the 2019 changes.
With the exception of the BJP, most regional parties that contested the election campaigned on restoration of autonomy and statehood and address pressing issues such as rising unemployment and inflation. The Congress party advocated for the restoration of the region’s statehood, while the BJP also expressed intentions to restore statehood, though it has not provided a timeline for when this would occur.
Since 2018, Indian-administered Kashmir has been without a government or assembly, ruled directly by India through a Governor or a Lieutenant Governor. The political turmoil began in June 2018 when the coalition government led by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was dissolved after the BJP abruptly withdrew its support, forcing PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti to resign as Chief Minister. In November 2018, Indian Governor Satya Pal Malik imposed Governor’s Rule, tightening Delhi’s grip on the region.
The last assembly election in Kashmir was held in 2014, after which the BJP, for the first time, ruled in a coalition with the local Peoples Democratic Party. But the government collapsed in 2018 after the BJP withdrew from the coalition. The landscape shifted dramatically on August 5, 2019, when India revoked Article 370, stripping the region of its special status, and abrogated Article 35A, which allowed non-Kashmiris to buy land. The territory was restructured into two Union Territories, transferring complete administrative control to Delhi, with a Lieutenant Governor appointed to oversee Kashmir. Following the revocation of autonomy, the Indian government escalated its crackdown; night raids became routine, leading to the jailing of thousands, including opposition politicians, journalists, lawyers, and civil rights activists under stringent laws that permit detentions without trial. According to the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir, over 2,700 people were arrested between 2020 and 2023. Journalists faced severe restrictions, with many having their passports revoked and newsrooms raided. The Press Club in Srinagar has effectively been transformed into a police office, underscoring the oppressive environment for free expression in the region.
The unprecedented move of abrogating the region’s special status and governing it through unelected bureaucrats from India and a heavy security presence resonated positively among many in India and Modi supporters. However, it faced significant opposition in Kashmir, seen as an assault on its identity and autonomy. Since then, the region has remained on edge, with civil liberties curtailed and the media gagged. The electorate’s rejection of the BJP reflects a broader resistance to the policies that have undermined local autonomy.
The psychological impact was profound, as residents perceived the army and administration as aligned against them, creating a suffocating atmosphere that stifled dissent and crushed hope. This left many feeling that their identity was snatched, their voices silenced, and they were completely disenfranchised.
The new government in Indian-administered Kashmir confronts a tumultuous path, where its greatest victory morphs into its fiercest challenge. True democracy and the restoration of powers to the elected assembly and government will be monumental tasks. Unlike states with autonomous authority, Union Territories are directly ruled by India through appointed Lieutenant Governors.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Azad Kashmir.
