Aleppo, once the largest city of Syria, no longer holds true to its historic depiction as the ‘centre of wealth and culture’ as narrated in the tales of Ibn Battuta and the travels of Alexander the Great. It is now a mere mirage of its past wonders left to the ruins of civil war dating back to the 2011 Arab spring that failed to inspire democratic change. Initially, the protests failed to deter the autocratic rule of Syrian leader –Bashar-al-Assad. However, Assad’s heavy hand and brutality against the dissenters lead to the once peaceful protests snowballing from a string of pro-democratic activism into a protracted conflict dominated by multiple foreign-backed proxies fighting for competing interests.
However, what is more astounding is that the recent ousting of Assad’s regime that once ruled Syria for more than 50 years with the backing of Russia and Iran ended in merely ten days, a feat that even the Afghan Taliban could not match. This has left international critics scratching their heads: How did a divided opposition succeed in toppling a regime that once ruled with an iron fist for so long?
Historically, it is crucial to understand that the Assad regime’s crackdown and violation of human rights during the 2011 Syrian protests proved unpopular and gave birth to the 2012 to 2016 Syrian civil war. Active insurgency ranged from multiple opposing actors including the ‘Free Syrian Army’ (FSA) in the South backed by the US, Gulf states and the Turkish regime; to the Kurdish dominated ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) in the North-East that enjoyed Western support but mostly at the expense of Turkish hostility. Furthermore, 2013 witnessed rise of Islamist groups like ISIS (Daesh) who managed to temporarily capture the Syrian town of Raqqa and declare it the Islamic caliphate’s capital until Russian intervention in 2015 managed to shift the balance of power in Assad’s favour.
However, the emergence of a more splintered Islamist faction that is a breakaway of ISIS (Daesh) and Al-Qaeda in the city of Idlib by the name of ‘Ha’yat Tahrir Al Sham’ (HTS), formerly ‘Jabhat al-Nusra’, has made recent waves. November 2024 witnessed HTS take over Syria’s M5 highway in the country’s North-West that is a crucial supply line connecting the towns of Aleppo to Hama leading to the capital of Damascus. The lack of resistance from Assad loyalists called the ‘Syrian Arab Army’ (SAA) and lethargic response of Iran and Russia forced Assad to flee the country and seek asylum in Russia. What was once a notorious group shunned and internationally designated as terrorists with a bounty on their heads soon struck a chord in the international media with HTS and its leader Abu Mohammad Al-Jalani becoming the face that toppled the regime.
Brutal legacy of the Assad family and Assad’s recalcitrance in the eyes of foreign nations played a key role in making his ousting a reality as civillian and international disatisfaction peaked. Bashar-al-Assad’s fall is not limited to his regime of brutality via mass killings, jail rape, and torture but dates back to his own father Hafez Al-Assad’s legacy of establishing not only the most militarised and authoritarian government in Syrian history but also his conduct during the 1982 Hama massacre agaisnt the Muslim Bortherhood. The crackdown resulted in 1 million people including civillians displaced, 40,000 estimated dead with 17,000 declared missing as the city was razed to the ground.
Furthermore, countries remained wary of Assad during Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League, citing his reluctance to release political detainees, curb ties with Iran and Hezbollah, and facilitate refugee repatriation. This contributed to his international infamy amongst other Gulf nations.
Assad loyalists and the Syrian Arab Army became a hallow shell of their former selves in contrast to the modern, well-equipped and militarized opposition rebel forces, hence making his ouster easier. While Assad was concerned with efforts concerning Syria’s re-entering of the Arab league, his control over the M5 highway north of Hama had become weak given Syrian Arab Army had become demoralised as they had not been paid their salaries for months after years of corruption and cronyism. Furthermore, the fighting prowess of the HTS who had been trained in modern drone warfare and night raids by the US and Ukrainian intelligence overwhelmed Assad’s forces.
Although US had outlawed HTS but given that along with Syrian Democratic Forces, they were their best bet against Assad whom the US had made no secret of disliking given the former support of Iran stood. Furthermore, Ukraine was interested in fighting all proxies and allies of Russia given their willingness to weaken Kremlins position in the region owing to the hostility during the recent Ukraine-Russian war.
Primarily, the civil strife edged on sectarian lines as Bashar-al-Assad belonged to the Shia Alawi minority group in Syria who enjoyed the favour of Iran but given Assad’s ruthlessness and favouritism towards Alawi loyalists who enjoyed better positions in bureaucracy, Syria’s Sunni civilian majority that accounted to 80 per cent of the demographics felt they had no stake in the government’s power sharing arrangements. This allowed them to be rallied in by opposing Sunni rebel forces like HTS, SDF, and FSA and to weaken Assad’s hold.
A weakened axis of foreign resistance amongst Assad’s Russian and Iranian allies allowed for the rebel groups and their foreign supporters to gain control of large swathes of Syrian land; allowing for Assad’s ousting. Given Iran’s Shia religious affiliation and Khomeini’s rise of power were credited to the Assad family, they made efforts to ensure the survival of Assad regime post 2015. In return, Damascus would ensure that Iranian advisors, their military supply and proxy transport links to the Middle East would stay open for use. However, given Iran and its proxies like Hezbollah were pre-occupied fighting various fronts in the Middle East including Gaza and Lebanon while suffering multiple tactical blows, it is no surprise they could not muster strength to support their ally. Furthermore, post-2015, Putin’s priorities had also shifted with all its manpower resources redirected to fighting the Ukraine war despite the presence of Putin’s naval bases in Syria and Russia’s old communist links to Assad’s Ba’ath party. Hence, they showed no resistance against the rebel forces advances with the exception of giving asylum to Assad’s family in Russia.
Turkey and Western powers’ agenda paved the way for Assad’s ousting. Turkey’s engagement via Erdogan’s hat trick given he eyed an opportunity during Russia and Iran’s preoccupation with wars abroad to support the rebel groups in taking over Syria. One reason for supporting HTS was to overwhelm the influence of the Western-Kurdish backed SDF given Turkey’s dealing with the Kurdish insurgency in its own neighborhood whose territorial gains in Syria’s north was viewed with suspicion. Furthermore, Ankara needed an excuse to send Syrian refugees back given they had become an economic drain on Turkey’s resources so it needed to settle the matter of Assad’s regime change.
Assad’s ousting suited US and Israeli regional security as Iran would lose a key ally and with Israel taking steps to conduct air strikes on Golan heights bordering Syria and US supporting rebel proxies in the North, it is no surprise foreign regional interests paved the way for Assad’s ouster.
Conclusively, Bashar al-Assad’s ousting was the result of weakened foreign alliances, sectarian divides, and rise of militarised opposition forces fueled by international geopolitical interests, marking the end of his family’s decades-long authoritarian rule in Syria. Further developments are needed to see what the future of Syria holds – a new path forward or a return to a new but splintered regime of brutality?
