Being hailed as one of the most ‘awaited yet unpredictable’ elections ever contested in US history, Trump’s electoral win and return to presidency with an outstanding majority of 312 votes has shaken the world by surprise. It has left much to speculate about his upcoming domestic and foreign policy maneuvers; particularly when drawing conclusions about future US-Pakistan foreign relations.
With Republicans being on the verge of clinching a majority in the US senate, it seems evident US foreign policy will warrant a hardline approach by prioritising international security and economic gains rather than committing to broader global partnerships. Republican nominees have often done sobby adopting an isolationist approach, imposing stricter economic sanctions and reprisals, or harkening to domestic anti-war sentiment. However, given that the world will be receiving a second flavour of Trump’s presidency and that US relations with Pakistan have often been seen from the lens of suspicion and navigation of regional terrorism, some predictions can be made. Given Trumps history of jeopardising existing foreign alliances by adopting policy moves that shun diplomatic decorum, one can safely say that Pakistan’s political and foreign security relations with bilateral and regional partners will take a new turn.
One potential policy concern includes whether Trump’s presidential return will inspire judicial action over calls for the political release of Pakistan’s former PM and PTI chief Imran Khan. Despite Trump’s personal rapport with Khan during his previous tenure and various organisations like the Association of Physicians of Pakistani Descent of North America (AAPNA) lobbying Trump to support Khan’s return to power, analysts claim such possibilities as improbable.While Khan’s relations with Biden were markedly strained in contrast to Trump, there are many reasons to support the claim that Trump will not pressure the Pakistani government for Khan’s release.
Firstly, Trump’s relation with Pakistan is ‘transactional’; hence it is based on pressuring the incumbent government to direct efforts towards dealing with the security menace of terrorism including leveraging US relations and aid with Pakistan to deal with the fickleness of the Afghan Taliban while imposing stricter limits on nuclear usage in the region to thwart a potential border crisis. This is owing to Trump’s deep-seated suspicion towards South-Asia’s potential for unchecked nuclear assets. Pakistani officials appear confident given the Republican moto mirrors ‘non-intervention’; one may say particularly in Pakistan’s civil affairs unless it entails adding pressure to restrict Pakistan’s global economic partnerships like China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This is because it involves regional stakeholders like China who America deems a threat to its economic and regional hegemony. It is key to remember that Trump’s return to power is marked by his presidency inheriting the foreign policy blunders of its ‘Democrat’ predecessors including the poor handling of the Ukraine-Russia war and Israeli support for the Palestine genocide. Given that Pakistan is already a low priority for US foreign policy, it seems unlikely that the Trump administration will pressure Pakistan’s government on Khan’s behalf.
Trump’s return will not only impact Pakistan’s civil and security affairs but will likely have a probable impact on its economic affairs. While Beijing calls for the deepening of Pak-China’s all-weather strategic cooperation, it is key to remember that Trump’s first tenure witnessed a spike in tensions with China, thus igniting the ‘trade war’ which if replicated in Trump’s second tenure has the potential to cast a shadow on CPEC’s progress and Pak-China relations. Hence, there is a probability that US scrutiny will allow Trump to limit Pakistan’s infrastructure, defence and technology cooperation with China at the expense of risking American investment if not abided by in an already economically deflated nation.
Trump’s return to power has been characterized by prioritising American domestic interests including US taxpayers calls for downsising foreign aid to other nations. Hence, it is probably unlikely that the stream of foreign aid and investment readily available under Biden’s democratic tenure will be as ‘easily available’ for Pakistan henceforth. Since 2023, US has been Pakistan’s largest export market generating an annual trade revenue of $5 billion. However, Trump’s return may signify Pakistan witnessing a reduction not only in bilateral foreign aid from the US but also from global partners like the IMF and World Bank who are indirectly sponsored and financed by the US. This is due to Trumps skepticism towards ‘foreign aid’. It is not just directed towards developing nations but also towards sponsoring of transnational and multilateral aid agencies at the expense of US taxpayer dollars. This can have a negative impact on the degree of foreign direct investment (FDI) sponsored in Pakistan which may result in increased inflation, skyrocketing unemployment and decreased business confidence.
Trump’s lobby that supports fossil fuel growth over green initiatives may place UN sustainable goal development in Pakistan at a backburner. Not to mention that Trump’s claims over climate change being a hoax and preference for driving fossil fuel industrial growth will sabotage green projects. It will equate to a loss in funding of USAID programs like US-Pakistan Green Alliance that has been instrumental in combating climate change. Ironically, this will result in Pakistan becoming economically dependent on Chinese aid but this alliance will also be threatened by US regional interests and desire to hinder CPEC’S progress.
Pakistan’s neighbouring relations may need some reconsideration under Trump’s second tenure; not just with China but with India and Afghanistan. Trump’s tenure may signal Pakistan to either deepen ties with India or risk heightening regional tensions given that Trump has previously expressed goodwill towards India’s current PM Narendra Modi.Modi and Trump’s rapport cannot be forgotten; particularly when exclaimers like ‘Howdy Modi’ dominated Trump’s previous tenure. Shared values held by both populist leaders who appeal to ultra-nationalist sentiments among their populations and their shared will to contain China’s regional and economic influence makes them form an unlikely partnership. This may mean that Pakistan may have to rekindle its relations with India or tread carefully when it comes to border disputes including Kashmir. Given Pakistan’s incumbent government under PML-N currently holds amiable relations with India’s BJP, navigating neighbourly relations may prove a possibility. Furthermore, there is a growing likelihood that Pak-Afghan engagement will be shaped by regional security pressures, as US foreign policy under Trump may position Pakistan as a proxy in addressing security challenges involving the Afghan Taliban. Hence, all foreign relations will need to be evaluated under a new US presidential rule.
Conclusively, Trump’s return to power will most probably redefine US-Pakistan relations with a sharper focus on American security and economic interests. Furthermore, Khan’s political release may not necessarily be contingent on Trump’s return to power. With Trump entangled in multiple foreign wars, sharing close ties to India while also upholding a hardline stance against China, this means Pakistan may no longer be US priority or that it may be forced to recalibrate regional alliances in a way that appeases US regional aspirations. However, time can only tell what the future of US-Pak relations holds in store.
The writer is our Editorial Assistant and an international affairs analyst.
